Market Insights Q3 2025
The S&P 500 Index is up 6.67% in in the first two quarters of 2025 as of this writing. The ten-year treasury yield started the quarter at 4.2% and is currently 4.31%. These data points may be surprising to some readers, due to the volatility between the start and end points of the quarter. The S&P 500 fell over 12% from April 2nd to April 8th but rallied more than 20% from that point and is within 3% of its all-time high. At one point in the second quarter, the ten-year treasury yield was down to 4.0% and rose as high as 4.6%.
Investors also look at the price of oil as a gauge of geopolitical risk in the market. The increase in oil prices could indicate the market is worried about oil supply disruption due to war. On April 1st, the price of Brent crude oil was $74.49 per barrel. On May 30th, the price was $67.61 per barrel. Again, this may be surprising, given news headlines about ongoing situations in the Middle East.
Historically, spikes in market volatility of the magnitude that occurred in April are good buying signals. This opportunity has been true again thus far. In mid-May, the S&P 500 rose more than 15% over 30 trading days, which has only occurred six other times since the end of 1999. International equity markets have also performed well. The MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index is up 14.47% year to date and played a role as a good diversifier when the U.S. equity market pulled back.
Our two main takeaways from quarter two are:
1) We believe holding a quality focused and globally diversified portfolio pays off during market pullbacks, and
2) Market pullbacks typically present attractive buying opportunities.
We would like to thank all our clients for trusting us to help navigate volatility, and we look forward to the second half of 2025.
All data referenced in this writing was sourced via Bloomberg
All indexes are unmanaged, and an individual cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses.
The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equities market. The index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 Index focuses on the large-cap segment of the market; however, since it includes a significant portion of the total value of the market, it also represents the market.
The MSCI ACWI ex US is the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index excluding the United States. It represents the performance of global equities outside of the U.S. This index includes both developed and emerging markets, excluding all companies with primary listings in the United States.
The 10-year Treasury yield represents the annual return an investor can expect to receive if they purchase a U.S. Treasury bond with a 10-year maturity and hold it until it matures. It’s essentially the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade. This yield is closely watched as an indicator of overall economic health and is a benchmark for other interest rates, including mortgage rates.
The opinions expressed in this commentary should not be considered as fact. All opinions expressed are as of the published date and are subject to change. The information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investments in securities involve risk, will fluctuate in price, and may result in losses. The information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable; however, no guarantee is made or implied with respect to its accuracy, timeliness, or completeness. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation. Comments concerning past performance are not intended to be forward-looking and should not be viewed as an indication of future results. Diversification does not protect against loss of principal.
Acumen Wealth Advisors, LLC® is a Registered Investment Adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Acumen Wealth Advisors, LLC® and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by Acumen Wealth Advisors, LLC® unless a client service agreement is in place.